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Israel and Iran: All-out war, or measured retaliation?
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Imageswatch nowBut a full-blown conventional war would be devastating to both sides and highly destabilizing for the Middle East. Are these tit-for-tat blows between Israel and Iran clear evidence of all-out war, or carefully calibrated retaliation strikes? "With Israel's apparent strikes on Iran today, retaliating for Iran's attack on Israel last Sunday, we now have a direct nation-on-nation hot war," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" Friday. 'Ball is back in Iran's court'Not everyone agrees that the line into wider war has been crossed, however. Within hours of the Israeli strikes, risk assets were already on their way back down, with international oil benchmark Brent crude turning lower for the session after a brief spike.
Persons: Atta Kenare, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden, Netanyahu, Ebrahim Raisi, Clay Seigle, CNBC's, Ehud Olmert, CNBC's Dan Murphy, Olmert, Ian Bremmer, Michael Singh, Israel, Rob Casey, Casey Organizations: AFP, Getty, Washington, Rapidan Energy Group, Israeli, Military, Israel, Eurasia Group, National Security Council, Wall Street, Signum Global Advisors, Anadolu, International Atomic Energy Agency, Brent Locations: Palestine Square, Tehran, Israel, Iran, U.S, Damascus, Gulf of Oman, Hormuz, Anadolu
Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian speaks during a press conference at the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in Beirut, Lebanon February 10, 2024. "What happened last night was not a strike," the foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, said in an interview with NBC News' Tom Llamas. But the foreign minister warned that if Israel did attack Iran, the response would be swift and severe. Iran responded 12 days later, launching an unprecedented, direct military attack on Israel involving more than 300 missiles and drones. Still, the foreign minister said he hopes that a deal will be reached soon for the release of the hostages as part of a broad settlement.
Persons: Hossein Amirabdollahian, Israel, Tom Llamas, , Amirabdollahian, Biden, Karine Jean, Pierre, Benjamin Netanhayu Organizations: Iran's, Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, NBC News, Security, Israel, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Locations: Beirut, Lebanon, New York, Iran, Israel, Syrian, Damascus, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, Tehran, Isfahan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIsrael-Iran conflict: Israel strike 'not the most' escalatory path it could've taken, analyst saysRob Casey, partner and senior analyst at Signum Global Advisors, says "the ball is back in Iran's court."
Persons: Rob Casey Organizations: Israel, Signum Global Advisors Locations: Iran, Israel, Iran's
An Israeli strike hit Isfahan in Iran, multiple outlets said, citing unnamed senior US officials. It came after Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel in its first-ever direct attack. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe relatively restrained nature of an apparent Israeli attack on Iran suggests that both sides are seeking to step back from the brink of a regional war, according to experts. Several explosions caused by an Israeli attack were heard in the central province of Isfahan on Friday, unnamed senior US officials told multiple outlets .
Persons: Organizations: Service, International Atomic Energy Agency, Business Locations: Israeli, Isfahan, Iran, Israel
A view of oil-well in action during sunset at Elk Hills Oil Field as gas prices on the rise in California, United States on April 14, 2024. Oil prices jumped more than 3% after unconfirmed reports of explosions near the Iranian city of Isfahan. Iran's Fars news agency reported that explosions were heard near the Isfahan airport, but emphasized that the reasons were unknown. Global benchmark Brent traded 3.63% higher at $90.27 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 3.66% to $85.76 per barrel. Spot gold prices surged to a fresh all-time high of 2,411.09 per ounce, while the yen strengthened 0.45% to 153.93 against the U.S. dollar.
Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, U.S . Locations: Elk, California, United States, Iranian, Isfahan, Iran's Fars, U.S
Israel carried out a limited military strike on Iranian soil on Friday morning. Analysts said the strike was likely a demonstration of Israel's capacity to reach Iranian nuclear sites. Two unnamed Israeli defense officials also told The New York Times that the Israeli military had mounted the attack. Related storyReports said that explosions were heard close to an Iranian military base near Isfahan, with Iranian state media outlet IRNA reporting that air defense systems had been activated. IAEA can confirm that there is no damage to #Iran’s nuclear sites.
Persons: Israel, , IRNA, @rafaelmgrossi, Jonathan Conricus, they've, Richard Goldberg, Ahmad Haqtalab Organizations: Service, Washington Post, Post, New York Times, Nuclear Threat Initiative, International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Israel Defense Forces, White House National Security Council, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Iranian, Isfahan, Ifsahan, Jerusalem
An Iranian ship suspected of providing intelligence to the Houthis is sailing home. The MV Behshad spent several months near Yemen as the Houthis launched attacks. Shipping data shows its back near Iran as Tehran braces for a potential Israeli retaliation. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The vessel has been at sea for nearly three years and spent several months earlier this year lingering near Yemen.
Persons: Behshad, Organizations: Shipping, Service, Business Locations: Yemen, Iran, Tehran, Israel, Gulf of Oman, Iran's, Hormuz
The Biden administration on Thursday announced new sanctions targeting Iran's drone program for its recent attack on Israel. The sanctions target 16 individuals and two entities involved in Tehran's drone production. Executives at an Iranian-based company that manufactured engines used in the attack are among the individuals sanctioned. All of the sanctioned individuals' property in the United States will be frozen. Five companies that provide materials to Khuzestan Steel Company, one of Iran's largest steel producers, were also sanctioned.
Persons: Biden, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Joe Biden Organizations: Companies, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qods Force, Khuzestan Steel Company, KSC Locations: Israel, Tehran, Iran, United Kingdom, Iranian, Syria, United States
Crude oil futures were mixed Thursday after a selloff earlier in the week as traders discounted fears of a war between Israel and Iran that could disrupt crude supplies. The West Texas Intermediate contract for May delivery added 4 cents, or 0.05%, to settle at $82.73 a barrel. U.S. crude oil had gained nearly 1% to a session high of $83.47 before pulling back. Oil sold off more than 3% Wednesday as Israel has refrained so far from striking back against Iran for the Islamic Republic's unprecedented weekend air assault, reducing fears of a major war in the Middle East. U.S. crude oil and the global benchmark have fallen below the prices reached after Israel's airstrike against Iran's diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria at the start of the month, the event that triggered the current round of hostilities.
Persons: Brent, we've, Phil Flynn Organizations: The West Texas Intermediate, Oil, Price Futures Group, Israel's Locations: Israel, Iran, The, Damascus, Syria
President Joe Biden's top economic advisor said Thursday that the White House will "make sure gas prices remain affordable" when asked whether the administration would consider tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. We'll continue to monitor closely and want to make sure that those gas prices remain in current ranges," Brainard said. U.S. crude oil hit a high of $87.67 per barrel this year before pulling back to around $83 a barrel. The White House is keeping a close eye on "geostrategic risk" in the Middle East, Brainard said. Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said oil prices above $90 presents a problem for the broader market.
Persons: Lael Brainard, Joe Biden's, Brainard, Biden, Lloyd Austin, John Podesta, Tuesday Biden, , Daniel Yergin, It's, Yergin, CNBC's Organizations: AAA, Summit, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, JPMorgan, Brent, P Global Locations: East, Eastern Europe, Israel, Ukraine, Iran
The House voted on Thursday to condemn Iran's recent missile and drone attack on Israel. 13 progressive House Democrats — and one Republican — voted against it. AdvertisementThe House of Representatives on Thursday voted to condemn Iran's recent missile and drone attack on Israel. 13 progressive House Democrats voted against the resolution along with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, a non-interventionist libertarian who often opposes these types of resolutions. Here are the 13 House Democrats who voted against the resolution:
Persons: Democrats —, Republican —, , Thomas Massie, Republicans teed, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez Organizations: Democrats, Republican, Service, Republican Rep, Republicans, Israel, Democratic Rep Locations: Israel, Iran, Iranian, Syria, Alexandria, Cortez of New York, Gaza
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIran attack on Israel: Ball is now in Israel's court, analyst saysEyal Mayroz, senior lecturer at the University of Sydney's department of Peace and Conflict Studies, discusses the implications of Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel.
Persons: Ball, Eyal Mayroz Organizations: University of Sydney's Locations: Israel
CNN —Iran’s response if Israel takes any further military action against it would be “immediate and at a maximum level,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN Thursday, as fears rise of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The tit-for-tat strikes have brought a decades long shadow war between Israel and Iran out in the open and sent fear coursing through the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday said Israel will make its “own decisions” when responding to Iran’s airstrikes. The details of a potential “maximum response” have been planned by Iran’s armed forces, he added. “Our operations in response were carried out at a minimum because we were not seeking to hit multiple targets,” he said.
Persons: Hossein Amir, Abdollahian, adventurism, ” Amir, CNN’s Erin Burnett, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, , Amir, Organizations: CNN, Amir, Palestinian, Hamas, Wednesday, Iranian, United Nations, White, Swiss Embassy Locations: Israel, Iran, New York, Tehran, Syria, Iranian, Isfahan, Iran’s, FARS, Damascus, United States, Gaza, Israeli, , America
The United States will impose new sanctions targeting Tehran after Iran's large-scale attack on Israel over the weekend, according to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Most of the 300 ballistic projectiles, the majority of which are believed to have been launched from inside of Iran’s territory, were intercepted by Israel and its allies. Iran said it attacked Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration would use sanctions “to continue disrupting the Iranian regime’s malign and destabilizing activity.”Here are the latest developments in the region:
Persons: Jake Sullivan, Janet Yellen, Biden Organizations: National Locations: States, Tehran, Israel, Iran, Syria
A direct war between Israel and Iran could lead to substantially higher oil prices through 2025, according to Bank of America. This scenario assumes that Iran's crude oil production falls by up to 1.5 million barrels per day due to the war. Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading sessions in the wake of Iran's weekend missile and drone assault against Israel. The bank has penciled in the first Fed interest rate cut in December, and oil prices would come down by then though remain elevated. "Should supply losses build up regionally, it may also prove difficult to access spare production capacity, so oil prices would likely settle above $150/bbl for several months," the bank's analysts forecast.
Persons: Brent, Israel, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Israel, Bank, Federal, bbl, Israeli Locations: Israel, Iran, OPEC, U.S
Iran and Israel have fought a deadly shadow war for decades. The two enemies have relied on proxy forces, assassinations, and strikes abroad to hit each other. AdvertisementA decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel has been thrust into broad daylight. Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel last weekend has notably changed the dynamics of this conflict, and it's now more dangerous. Any Israeli military response to the attack risks an all-out confrontation with Iran and could plunge the region into even more violence.
Persons: , Alma al, KAWNAT HAJU, Jonathan Lord, Israel, MAHER, MOUNES, Israel —, Joseph Votel, Votel, Christophe Van Der Perre Israel, Josep Borrell, Maj, Hossein, Lord Organizations: Service, Hezbollah, Getty Images Israel, Pentagon, Business, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Getty, US Central Command, REUTERS Locations: Iran, Israel, Tehran, Lebanon, Hamas, Gaza, Lebanese, Alma, AFP, Iraq, Syria, Israel's, Hormuz, Iranian, Damascus, Syria's, Arad, Spanish
That's a boost for the regional air defense network the US wants. AdvertisementThe United States shot down more of the incoming Iranian drones than Israel and played a central role in the "multinational air defense operation" consisting of British, French, and Jordanian air forces. An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel on April 14, 2024. "Russia will seek to offset the US success in backing Israel by looking to buttress Iran's defense with advanced Russian systems such as the Su-35," Heras said. There were also reports last year indicating Iran also seeks the advanced Russian S-400 air defense missile system.
Persons: , Biden, Jordan, MEAD, Nicholas Heras, Amir Cohen, Heras, Nadimi, Alexander Zemlianichenko, Su Organizations: Service, Biden, East Air Defense, UAE —, New Lines Institute, United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, Washington Institute for Near East, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, AP Locations: Israel, Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, States, Jordanian, Israeli, Mar, Ashkelon, United States, Tehran, Russian, Syria, Moscow, Su
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIran's attack on Israel: China could play a big role in reducing contagion risk, ex-diplomat saysJoseph Westphal, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, discusses the implications of Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel.
Persons: Joseph Westphal Locations: Israel, China, U.S, Saudi Arabia
Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.
Persons: , that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen
Oil storage drums stacked in the Keihin industrial area of Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on Monday, April 15, 2024. Oil prices eased in early trade on Wednesday as worries about global demand due to weak economic momentum in China and fading hopes for U.S. interest rate cuts in the near term outweighed supply fears on heightened tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices have softened so far this week as economic headwinds pressured investor sentiment, curbing gains from geopolitical tensions, with eyes on how Israel might respond to Iran's attack on Israeli territory over the weekend. "Demand concerns increased due to expectations that U.S. interest rate cuts are likely to be delayed and weaker-than-expected economic data from China," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities. "Since the market had been rising until last week on supply worries amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the relatively restrained Iranian aggression has not provided the ground for buying up," he said.
Persons: Hiroyuki Kikukawa Organizations: Brent, NS, Nissan Securities Locations: Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, China, Israel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIsrael will probably want to impose significant cost on Iran but also signal de-escalation: AnalystMichael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute and former senior director of Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, discusses Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel.
Persons: Michael Singh Organizations: Washington Institute, National Security Council Locations: Iran, Israel
Both the US and Israel used weapons capable of killing missiles in space to fend off Iranian weapons last weekend. Videos circulating online from the fight appeared to show an exo-atmospheric kill, though details are few. Intercepting a ballistic missile outside the Earth's atmosphere is a challenging task, an expert told Business Insider. Very unique footage showing an exoatmospheric interception amid the Iranian ballistic missile attack, likely by the Arrow 3 air defense system. The SM-3 is also capable of destroying short- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles during the midcourse phase and can hit targets outside the Earth's atmosphere.
Persons: , Arrow, wrZNCV01tn — Emanuel, Mannie, Fabian, @manniefabian, Sidharth, Kaushal, Amir Cohen Organizations: Service, US, Iranian, ABM, Times, US Department of Defense, Israel Defense Force, Arrow, Royal United Services Institute, Reuters, Israel, Houthi, Center, Strategic, International Studies, Washington DC, US Navy, Missile Defense Locations: Israel, Iranian, Iran, Ashkelon, Washington
Tensions in the Middle East pose the biggest threat to a prospective interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, according to ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann. "At this stage, I think the biggest threat is geopolitics, because we have seen what's happened in the Middle East," Austrian central bank governor Holzmann told CNBC's Karen Tso on Wednesday. Holzmann singled out ramifications for energy prices as the single most important factor in terms of Europe's fight to tame inflation. "As summer approaches we can start reducing the level of restriction in monetary policy, provided that inflation continues to fall as projected." He recently told Reuters that the ECB could moderate rates in June, indicating a growing consensus for a near-term move.
Persons: Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Karen Tso, policymaker Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary, Bank of, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Reuters Locations: Austrian, Hormuz, Iran, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Bank of Finland, London
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani at the Pentagon on Monday. Austin and Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant discussed the aftermath of Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend, the readout said. The secretary also reiterated “steadfast” US support for Israel’s defense. Austin previously asked Gallant to notify the US ahead of any potential response to the Iranian attack, according to a US official. The two had spoken hours after Iran had launched a barrage of drones and missiles at Israel.
Persons: Lloyd Austin, Mohammed Shia, Chris Kleponis, Defense Lloyd Austin, , Yoav Gallant, Austin, Gallant Organizations: US, Iraqi, Pentagon, Getty, Defense, Austin Locations: AFP, Israel, Iran
China refused to condemn Iran's missile attack on Israel. AdvertisementChina refused to condemn Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel as it seeks to position itself as a key player in the Middle East. The statement was notable because it contained no condemnation of Iran's attack on Israel on Saturday. The US has sought to enlist China is helping to prevent a bigger regional war, the State Department said. In the readout, China praised Iran for acting with restraint in its response to Israel's embassy attack.
Persons: , Wang Yi's, Hossein Amir, Amir, Abdollahian, Wang, Israel's, Xi Jinping, Ebrahim Raisi, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Service, Foreign, Saturday, Iran, Iranian, Lebanese, Hezbollah, Israel's, US, State Department Locations: China, Israel, Iran, Damascus, Syria, Iranian, Saudi Arabia, Gaza, Beijing
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